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The passive delivered by high-yielding (ASX: XJO) stocks can make a tremendous difference to your accumulated returns over time. Especially if you opt to reinvest those dividends. To get an idea of just how important dividends are to the overall returns from the benchmark index, just take a look at the (ASX: XJT). This index includes all cash dividends paid out by ASX 200 dividend stocks and reinvested on the date. Over the past five years, the ASX 200 has returned a healthy 26.0%. The Total Return Index, on the other hand, has returned 52.1%. Now, after a bumper year in FY 2023, dividend payments from Aussie stocks have come down in FY 2024. Lower payouts from the mining and energy sectors, mirroring the retrace in commodity prices, drove a big part of that retrace. The question facing passive income investors now is, what can we expect in 2025? Darren Thompson is the head of asset management at Equity Trustees Asset Management. Discussing the 2025 Australian equity market outlook, Thompson cautions that many top ASX 200 dividend stocks are likely to deliver lower payouts in FY 2025. He expects overall market earnings to be flat to down compared to FY 2024. And overall dividends to be "slightly down" year on year. On the macro picture, he notes: In Australia, although we have some wonderful global businesses, economically we are more leveraged to domestic drivers and a weakening China story than the stronger US economic thematic. If you've been investing in ASX 200 dividend stocks, you've most likely bought at least some of the big Aussie banks and mining companies. Indeed, if you're building a diversified passive income portfolio, I'd say they're an essential component. Meaning their FY 2025 performance will be key to the overall market returns. "The outlook for both earnings and dividends for the domestic market is heavily weighted to the performance of banks and resources," Thompson said. As for the big banks like ( ), ( ), ( ), and ( ), he noted: Bank earnings are anticipated to be broadly flat due to a combination of modest credit growth, ongoing competition restricting net interest margins, ongoing cost pressures and already cyclically low bad debt provisions. Thompson said he expects to see lower dividend payouts coming from ASX 200 dividend stocks in the resources sector in the year ahead, "reflecting the pullback in earnings and cashflows for ( ), ( ) and ( ) due to low iron ore prices". He added: These companies remain highly profitable, cash generative business. It is simply that iron ore prices have continued to retrace from previous cyclical highs, largely due to lower demand from China. With income growth still anticipated among some companies in select sectors, passive income investors will want to make sure to do their research when buying new stocks in 2025. According to Thompson: Many sectors of the Australian market are expected to deliver earnings and dividend growth going forward. However, they are not of sufficient scale to compensate for the impact of the materials and energy sectors. As for the combined outlook for payouts he expects from ASX 200 dividend stocks in FY 2025, he said, "The impact of these factors is such that the Australian equity markets 12-month forward dividend yield is about 3.4%, which is well below the 10-year average."Trump says he can't guarantee tariffs won't raise prices, won't rule out revenge prosecutions
A new forecast from the Bank of Montreal (BMO) is signalling that the economic situation the deputy prime minister called a “vibecession” could come to an end next year. In a brief note to clients from BMO economist Shelly Kaushik published late Monday, the bank suggested that a decline in population growth to a “more manageable pace” and signs the economy is rebounding through monetary policy easing mean the “vibecession” should dissipate in 2025. BMO’s note comes only a week after Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland suggested the federal government’s proposed break on GST and HST, which is making its way through the Senate, would address the “vibecession.” “There is a disconnect between the really positive economic news, the fact that the Canadian economy does appear set for a soft landing — that’s good news — but Canadians aren’t feeling it and that is shaping their economic behaviour in ways that are not great for the Canadian economy,” Freeland told reporters last week. Economists have also called it a “me-cession,” referencing the fact that although picture economic trends like inflation are returning to the central bank target zone, households are struggling with groceries, rent and mortgages that saw prices ramp up rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, and wages that have yet to catch up. In the note, Kaushik says while the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is still growing, that growth lags the population surge. Last week, data from Statistics Canada showed the economy grew by one per cent in the third quarter. But it was a slowdown from the 2.2 per cent annualized growth seen in the previous quarter and undershot the Bank of Canada’s call for 1.5 per cent growth. Kaushik adds that real GDP per capita is a way to measure the standard of living, and its “deterioration” is a reason why it may “feel like a recession” for some Canadians. The boost to the economy rebounding though could in part come from policies to encourage spending by Canadians, such as the proposed “tax holiday” on GST and HST. If passed, consumers will see the GST — and in some provinces the HST — removed from various items, including certain groceries, children’s clothing, toys, restaurant meals and video game consoles starting Dec. 14 until Feb. 14, as the holiday season is in full swing. Freeland said it’s about ensuring Canadians feel confidence to spend again and act on it. Last week, TD Bank put out its own report that suggested the proposed $250 rebate cheques from the federal government, the fate of which remains uncertain amid political gridlock, would also provide stimulus to the economy and spur more Canadians to spend. That report noted it also could lead to a slowdown in interest rate cuts as the Bank of Canada won’t have to provide extra stimulus itself. Though not mentioned in her note, BMO last week estimated the stimulus from the “tax holiday” and cheques amounts to 0.3 per cent of GDP, but senior economist Robert Kavcic cautioned in a report that while “hefty,” it would “do little to change economic behaviour.” –with files from Global News’ Craig Lord and The Canadian Press
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